LevellerLive

We did not publish figures last Wednesday as none were published for that day. However we do have figures for the day before so today we have two sets of figures. In the last 8 days to the 4 May, there were 869 new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. And in the 6 days to the 26 April there were 1,097 new cases. That marks five consecutive weeks of falling case numbers. This week is the first time case numbers have fallen below the level at which Government implemented Plan B. If numbers continue to track downwards, with warmer weather coming, it is possible the worst may be over. Nevertheless the case for mask wearing and basic hygiene remains.

The table below tracks the overall weekly number of infections in Somerset in recent weeks.

• 869 for the 8 days to 4 May
• 1,097 for 6 days to 26 April
• 1,997 for the week to 20 April
• 2,730 for the week to 13 April
• 4,636 for the week to 6 April
• 6,606 for the week to 30 March
• 7,677 for the week to 23 March
• 5.966 for 1 week to 16 March
• 6,033 for 2 weeks to 9 March
• 3,368 to 23 February
• 4,213 to 16 February
• 5,631 to 9 February
• 10,133 to 2 February
• 5,393 to 26 January
• 4,558 to 19 January
• 6,476 to 12 January
• 6,618 to 5 January
• 4,289 to 29 December
• 3,130 to 22 December
• 2,804 to 15 December
• 2,521 to 8 December
• 2,534 to 1 December

The rapid decline in caseloads has continued across the county over the last fortnight. Ordinarily this is what we would have expected, just from a seasonal point of view. But given the high case numbers in recent months, the falling numbers are welcome news. There were no areas where caseloads were above 500 per 100,000 population. Encouragingly in half a dozen areas, the case load has fallen below 100 per 100,000 population. That includes both Minehead and Shepton Mallet.

In fact no region in Somerset reported over 100 new cases in total. The highest number of cases was in Taunton with 93 logged, closely followed by Yeovil with 73. In Bridgwater, just 65 new cases were noted. Frome and Wellington recorded 33 new cases each and there were just 12 reported in Wells. there were 114 cases compared with 331 while in Frome 48 cases were recorded against 128 last week.

Bear in mind that just six weeks ago Taunton had over 1,000 cases in a week. Bridgwater reported 561, Yeovil 697 and Frome 336. These are very significant falls in the number of reported infections.

In Chard there were just 24 new cases reported and in Crewkerne 13.

All that said, a number of people have noted that the figures are likely to be underreported as increasingly people with COVID 19 are simply taking time off work as they would with any other sickness. The relaxation of reporting and quarantine rules, makes keeping a complete count harder.

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 4 May for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 15 April). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

The declining numbers of infections are not yet reflected in the figures for deaths. This is again, as expected. It is likely to be a couple of weeks more before the number of deaths from COVID 19 falls away altogether. in the week to 15 April, the latest figures we have, there were 6 deaths reported. 5 were in hospital and one in a care home.

The figures for hospitalisations have also finally started to fall steeply. By 4 May just 100 people were in Yeovil or Musgrove with CPOVID 19. Even so it is worth remembering that these numbers are still high compared with 90 in October last year. At the time that was felt to be the peak of the pandemic in terms of hospitalisations.

The R number remains at 0.7-0.9 this week. That suggests case numbers should be falling and for once appears to be reflecting reality on the ground.

As ever here is the full dataset so you can form your own conclusions: