LevellerLive

In the last week, to 20 April, there were 1,997 new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. That marks five consecutive weeks of falling case numbers. This week is the first time case numbers have fallen below the level at which Government implemented Plan B. If numbers continue to track downwards, with warmer weather coming, it is possible the worst may be over. Nevertheless the case for mask wearing and basic hygiene remains.

The table below tracks the overall weekly number of infections in Somerset in recent weeks.

• 1,997 for the week to 20 April
• 2,730 for the week to 13 April
• 4,636 for the week to 6 April
• 6,606 for the week to 30 March
• 7,677 for the week to 23 March
• 5.966 for 1 week to 16 March
• 6,033 for 2 weeks to 9 March
• 3,368 to 23 February
• 4,213 to 16 February
• 5,631 to 9 February
• 10,133 to 2 February
• 5,393 to 26 January
• 4,558 to 19 January
• 6,476 to 12 January
• 6,618 to 5 January
• 4,289 to 29 December
• 3,130 to 22 December
• 2,804 to 15 December
• 2,521 to 8 December
• 2,534 to 1 December

The rapid decline in caseloads this week has been uniform across the county. There were no areas where caseloads were above 500 per 100,000 population. The first time in a couple of months that we could report this. In Bridgwater, just 77 new cases were noted as against 215 last week. Similarly in Taunton, just 145 new cases were recorded compared with 409 the week before. Taunton still has the highest case load, but it is worth noting that four weeks ago we had over 1,000 cases reported there. In Yeovil there were 114 cases compared with 331 while in Frome 48 cases were recorded against 128 last week.

In Chard there were just 36 new cases reported and in Crewkerne 20. In Wells case numbers fell dramatically with just 25 new cases noted compared to 41 last week. In Wellington case numbers have finally fallen. However the 68 cases reported compare with 77 for Bridgwater, a town twice its size.

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 20 April for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 1 April). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

The numbers of infections have remained significant for four months. However the most important figures to focus on are deaths and hospitalisations. This is what will tell us most about living with COVID. This week there was no update on deaths, with figures only available to 1 April, which we reported last week.

The figures for hospitalisations continue to provide the biggest challenge to living with COVID 19. We have asked the public health team for a split between those people in hospital who have COVID as opposed to those in hospital because of COVID. We have been told this is not possible. Which leaves us looking at some very large figures for hospitalisation in Musgrove and Yeovil hospitals. By the end of this week they had started to fall back below 150, which is still high compared with 90 in October last year. At the time that was felt to be the peak of the pandemic in terms of hospitalisations.

The R number remains at 0.8-1.0 this week. That suggests case numbers should be falling and for once appears to be reflecting reality on the ground.

As ever here is the full dataset so you can form your own conclusions: