Somerset COVID 19 latest data
This week to 14 July, there were 989 new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. Last week we noted that Somerset cases were rising but not in the sort of jumps seen in the rest of the country. This week that picture looks very different. With the caseload doubling in a week things look less rosy.
That said, it is a pattern that is much more in line with what epidemiology experts have predicted. In many ways Somerset’s figures have looked unrealistically low for a month. This pattern of increase looks to be more in line with what we should have expected. Though as we said last week, it is unwise to jump to rapid conclusions when we know this virus is fast moving and unpredictable. The table below illustrates the point. It tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks.
- 989 to 14 July
- 470 to 7 July
- 452 to 1 July
- 257 to 23 June
- 110 to 16 June
- 50 to 9 June
- 31 to 2 June
Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures. Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 14 July for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 2 July). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.
This week there was a further update on deaths from COVID 19 in our area, to 2 July. And once again we are pleased/relieved to report there have been no new deaths recorded. Which is again encouraging. We are now virtually a month now into the new surge in case numbers. In previous outbreaks by now we would have expected a small number of deaths. Of course the party line is that infections may rise but hospitalisations and deaths will not rise in proportion. Primarily because of the vaccination cover in the population. We will continue to monitor the figures for deatsh each week to see how that is panning out.
The R number (reproduction rate) for the South West this week has been retained in a range of 1.3 to 1.6. It feels right and is probably quite realistic. It is indicative of the rising case numbers and the potential for them to grow exponentially.
The vaccination programme remains of paramount importance with a focus now on all cohorts aged under 30. Over 85% of those in the 30-39 cohort have now received at least one jab.
Last week a further 4,741 of those aged 18-24 in Somerset were vaccinated. In addition 1,324 of our 25-30s were vaccinated too.
However, as always, we have attached the full data set here so you can draw your own conclusions: