Somerset COVID 19 latest data

This week to 14 July, there were 989 new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. Last week we noted that Somerset cases were rising but not in the sort of jumps seen in the rest of the country. This week that picture looks very different. With the caseload doubling in a week things look less rosy.

That said, it is a pattern that is much more in line with what epidemiology experts have predicted. In many ways Somerset’s figures have looked unrealistically low for a month. This pattern of increase looks to be more in line with what we should have expected. Though as we said last week, it is unwise to jump to rapid conclusions when we know this virus is fast moving and unpredictable. The table below illustrates the point. It tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks.

  • 989 to 14 July
  • 470 to 7 July
  • 452 to 1 July
  • 257 to 23 June
  • 110 to 16 June
  • 50 to 9 June
  • 31 to 2 June

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 14 July for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 2 July). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

This week there was a further update on deaths from COVID 19 in our area, to 2 July. And once again we are pleased/relieved to report there have been no new deaths recorded. Which is again encouraging. We are now virtually a month now into the new surge in case numbers. In previous outbreaks by now we would have expected a small number of deaths. Of course the party line is that infections may rise but hospitalisations and deaths will not rise in proportion. Primarily because of the vaccination cover in the population. We will continue to monitor the figures for deatsh each week to see how that is panning out.

The R number (reproduction rate) for the South West this week has been retained in a range of 1.3 to 1.6. It feels right and is probably quite realistic. It is indicative of the rising case numbers and the potential for them to grow exponentially.

The vaccination programme remains of paramount importance with a focus now on all cohorts aged under 30. Over 85% of those in the 30-39 cohort have now received at least one jab.

Last week a further 4,741 of those aged 18-24 in Somerset were vaccinated. In addition 1,324 of our 25-30s were vaccinated too.

However, as always, we have attached the full data set here so you can draw your own conclusions:

3 comments

  • Please give figures for the number of people in hospital in Somerset for Covid-19 and the number of deaths in Somerset reported as being due to Covid-19?

    My understanding is that even though (as you report) positive tests are soaring in Somerset, as of yesterday there were Zero people in hospital in Somerset with COVID-19 and nobody has died of COVID-19 or within 28 days of a positive test since the end of April.

    I have read elsewhere that yesterday the mortality rate in Somerset was 18% below the seasonal norm and has been below the seasonal norm since mid March.

    No doubt you have access to sources to confirm or dispute the above.

    • We have reported specifically on COVID deaths in the article.
      We don’t have figures from the NHS on hospitalisations but our understanding is the same as yours, that there are none as yet.

    • Andrew thank you for replying.
      I think it is important that people are made aware that the mortality rate is 18% below the norm for this time of year and has been below since March.
      The more people are aware of both the infection rate and the mortality rate then the better the understanding of how vital it is for the health of general population that everyone who can gets their vaccinations – herd immunity through COVID-19 vaccination will deliver the return to a more normal lifestyle for everyone and save the lives of those needing treatment for other life threatening conditions.
      I got my data from a councillor who gives useful and up-to-date COVID-19 Reports for Somerset on his Facebook page.

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