LevellerLive

This week (to yesterday, 26 May) there were 19 new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. Looking at the trend across the county and the map of the outbreak by region, it is really stark. In a good way of course! This is not a sign as yet, that the pandemic has “gone away.” We would need to see figures without cases for several weeks to consider that. To date we appear to have been successful at keeping the Indian virus out of Somerset.

The table below illustrates the point. It tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks:

• 19 to 26 May
• nil to 19 May
• 92 to 13 May
• 81 to 5 May
• 79 to 28 April
• 63 to 21 April
• 19 to 16 April
• 103 to 7 April
• 244 to 1 April

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 26 May for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 7 May). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

This week there was no further update on deaths from COVID 19 in our area. The latest set of data to 7 May we reported last week, it showed no deaths

The R number (reproduction rate) for the South West this week continues to be in a range either side of 1. The fact that for over a month it has been quoted in a range of 0.8 to 1.2 is unhelpful. Today it is set at 0.8-1.1. The point of this figure appears to be to illustrates the risk that numbers could rise as easily as fall. It is becoming increasingly unhelpful and out of step with the actual numbers of cases being reported.

The vaccination programme figures for Somerset have also been updated. Progress continues to be made, albeit at a slower pace. Over 90% of every age group over 50 have had at least one jab. Progress is now focusing on younger age groups. 8-0% of those aged 40-49 have now had at least one jab. We now know that 70% of those in the 40-44 cohort have been vaccinated with a first jab. Meanwhile another 5,000 Somerset residents iunder 40 had a COVID vaccination in the last week.

However, as always, we have attached the full data set here so you can draw your own conclusions: