Somerset COVID 19 latest figures

This week (to 18 February) there have been a further 444 confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. The current trend does now appear to be falling away from a peak at 6 January. This week saw the lowest figure for new infections since November. It is now clear that the numbers of new cases are falling away at a significant rate and the charts presented by Somerset County Council show that more clearly (see the data set included below). The table below shows tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks:

  • 444 to 18 February
  • 819 to 10 February
  • 1,090 to 3 February
  • 1,408 to 27 January
  • 1753 to 20 January
  • 1564 to 13 January
  • 2230 to 6 January
  • 1475 to 30 December
  • 1002 to 23 December
  • 672 to 16 December

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 18 February for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 5 February). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

Sadly the week to 5 February has again seen a high death toll. With 57 deaths recorded (compared with 58 last week) and the total now standing at 682 since the outbreak began. 213 deaths have been recorded in Somerset in the last 4 weeks alone (though the figures represent deaths in the 4 weeks to 5 February). That is nearly a third of all deaths due to COVID 19 since the outbreak began. It is a sobering thought and our condolences go out to all those families mourning the loss of loved ones.

In statistical terms it is sadly what we should expect, as we mentioned in previous weeks. The number of deaths tracking roughly two weeks behind the number of infections. The peak of infections, over 2,000 in one week was in the week to 6 January.

In the first phase of the pandemic Sedgemoor had experienced significantly more deaths than the rest of Somerset. In the last few months that situation has changed markedly. In these figures (for the 5 February) 30 of the 57 recorded deaths were in Somerset west and Taunton. The distribution across the county over time has become more even:

  • 192 Somerset West and Taunton
  • 174 South Somerset
  • 162 Sedgemoor
  • 154 Mendip

The R number for the South West this week is reported to have fallen. It is now within the range of 0.7 to 0.9. That adds to the confidence we can have in the number of new infections falling. The South West is now very much in line in terms of the R number, with the rest of the country.

As ever we attach the full data set so readers can see for themselves and form their own conclusions.

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