LevellerLive

This week (to 27 January) there have been a further 1,408 confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. The current trend does now appear to be falling away from a peak at 6 January. However as we have said too many times before, it is still early days to draw firm conclusions. The table below shows tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks:

• 1,408 to 27 January
• 1753 to 20 January
• 1564 to 13 January
• 2230 to 6 January
• 1475 to 30 December
• 1002 to 23 December
• 672 to 16 December
• 492 to 9 December

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 27 January for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 15 January). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

This week the largest outbreak of COVID 19 has been in Chard. The town is now the only part of the county with an infection rate per 100,000 above 600. Much now hinges on the success of the vaccination programme.

The latest figures show the number of deaths in our area to be 34 in the week to 15 January. This weeks deaths were mainly in hospital (21) with 11 in care homes and 2 other. This compares to 37 deaths in the week to the 8 January.

In the first phase of the pandemic Sedgemoor had experienced significantly more deaths than the rest of Somerset. In the last few months that situation has changed markedly. South Somerset has now had the largest number of deaths for several weeks:

• 142 South Somerset
• 123 Sedgemoor
• 104 Mendip
• 100 Somerset west and Taunton

The R number for the South West this week is reported to have fallen. It is now within the range of 0.9 to 1.2. We can only reiterate how unhelpful that range is. 0.9 would mean the infection numbers are not rising, 1.2 would mean they are increasing! We would recommend paying more attention to the actual number of infections. However it remains a fact that as last week, this is now the highest R number range in the country, along with similar figures for the North West.

As ever we attach the full data set so readers can see for themselves and form their own conclusions.