Somerset COVID 19 latest figures

This week (to 20 January) there have been a further 1,753 confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. This demonstrates the point we made last week. When the numbers come down in one week, we should not read too much into it. The current trend is clearly not yet falling. Equally the trend line is not rising either. The table below shows tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks:

  • 1753 to 20 January
  • 1564 to 13 January
  • 2230 to 6 January
  • 1475 to 30 December
  • 1002 to 23 December
  • 672 to 16 December
  • 492 to 9 December
  • 517 To 2 December
  • 507 To 25 November

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 20 January for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 8 January). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

This morning Somerset’s Public Health Director, Trudi Grant noted two large outbreaks of COVID 19. Both have been in Somerset West & Taunton but she was not more specific.

The latest figures show the number of deaths in our area to be 37 in the week to 1 January. This weeks deaths were mainly in hospital (23) with 12 in care homes and 2 other. This compares to 29 deaths in the week to the 1 January and 33 in the week to 18 December. Trudi Grant also noted that the numbers of deaths were not unexpected, though obviously tragic. The increase in deaths generally tracks around two weeks behind increases infections. However there is an expectation that as the vaccination program gets underway, this should fall away.

In the first phase of the pandemic Sedgemoor had experienced significantly more deaths than the rest of Somerset. In the last few months that situation has changed markedly. South Somerset has now had the largest number of deaths for several weeks:

  • 135 South Somerset
  • 115 Sedgemoor
  • 96 Mendip
  • 88 Somerset west and Taunton

The R number for the South West continues to be reported as between 1.2 to 1.5. We can only reiterate how unhelpful that range is. It is clear from the recent numbers reported for our area, that in Somerset the number is greater than 1. However it is interesting to note that this is now the highest R number range in the country, along with similar figures for the North West.

As ever we attach the full data set so readers can see for themselves and form their own conclusions.

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