Latest Somerset COVID 19 figures

This week (to 13 January) there have been a further 1,564 confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. This marks a significant reduction on last week as the table below shows. However, we always warn about drawing too many conclusions from one week of numbers. The table below shows tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks:

  • 1564 to 13 January
  • 2230 to 6 January
  • 1475 to 30 December
  • 1002 to 23 December
  • 672 to 16 December
  • 492 to 9 December
  • 517 To 2 December
  • 507 To 25 November

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 13 January for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 1 January). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

The latest figures show the number of deaths in our area to be 29 in the week to 1 January. This weeks deaths were mainly in hospital (22) with 6 in care homes and 1 other. This compares to 33 in the week to 18 December and 17 in the week to 25 December.

In the first phase of the pandemic Sedgemoor had experienced significantly more deaths than the rest of Somerset. In the last month the situation has changed markedly. South Somerset now has the largest number of deaths as the table below indicates:

  • 111 South Somerset
  • 106 Sedgemoor
  • 89 Mendip
  • 77 Somerset west and Taunton

Of particular interest this week are the figures for deaths in Somerset across the last year. These are then compared with the lowest and highest figures over the past 5 years. It is interesting because figures published nationally were published yesterday (12 January). These showed there 697,000 deaths in 2020 – nearly 85,000 more than would be expected. That expectation being based on the average number of deaths over the past five years.

However take a look at the graph tracking deaths across the year (Somerset all deaths – weekly ONS). This seems to show death rates in Somerset tracking between the highest and lowest years of the past five years. We should stress it is not exactly the same thing, but it appears to show death rates here are closer to the norm than they are nationally.

The R number for the South West continues to be reported as between 1.1 to 1.5. We can only reiterate how unhelpful that range is. It is clear from the recent numbers reported for our area, that in Somerset the number is greater than 1.

As ever we attach the full data set so readers can see for themselves and form their own conclusions.

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