Somerset COVID 19 latest figures

This lunchtime Somerset County Council (SCC) published the latest figures for COVID 19 cases. The headline figures are not out of the ordinary. In the week to 21 October 2,223 cases in total had been confirmed in Somerset. That represents a rise of 217 confirmed cases since 15 October. This actually shows the number of confirmed cases has fallen from the weekly total to 15 October. Then the number of new cases was 247.

But before we go any further, our usual health warning as to what the figures are, and what they are not. Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 21 October for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 9 October). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

So what else is new. To be honest not much. The rate of spread in Somerset is among the lowest in the country. It is partly a result of having a low density population. that helps, but for instance other parts of Northern England with low density populations are not doing so well. Northumberland and Carmarthen shire have rates of infection approximately double that of Somerset.

It probably helps that anecdotally, for what that is worth, our local population is simply following the rules. It is interesting to look at the compliance with mask wearing, socialising and hand washing. You just see more of it than you do in places such as Manchester or even Birmingham. Perhaps we are less prone to swallowing social media conspiracy theories. Recent efforts include entirely predictable including “its all a government conspiracy” and “its a disease made in China to destroy the West”

Back here in the real world, there is more new data on the R number (estimated to be dangerously high at 1.3-1.6). This together with the detailed analysis of the outbreak by location is added to the data this week. To be honest, neither is entirely reliable. The calculations are a best guess. We have included all the data below as usual, but i would be cautious about drawing too many conclusions.

Once again the most cheerful bit of analysis is around deaths. There haven’t been any from COVID 19 in the last week reported (remember this is just to 9 October). The total remains at 207 meaning there have been just 2 deaths since 3 September where COVID 19 is mentioned on the death certificate.

Please have a read of the full data release here

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