COVID 19 in Somerset – Going but not yet gone

The latest weekly figures published by Somerset County Council on COVID 19 show levels of infection, and deaths are under control.

But once again before looking at the figures, we need to be a little dull and explain what exactly they are. Unlike NHS data this includes care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 19th June (although different dates are used for some of the figures). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

So for the current week there were once again 2 deaths recorded, one in a care home and 1 at home, none in hospital. This is the same level as last week and brings total deaths in the SCC area to 199.

For the whole of June, only 2 care homes were reported to be dealing with an outbreak of COVID 19 in our area.

Although notoriously unreliable, the R number published is a warning to anyone who thinks we can relax our guard. The range published is a reflection of the unreliability of the figure at a local level. Unfortunately whilst 0.7 would not be so troubling, 1.0 very definitely is. So a range of 0.7-1.0 here is unhelpful. We would suggest it merely indicates that there is work still to be done to mitigate the possibility of the virus erupting again. Please continue to follow government guidelines on PPE and social distancing.

As ever we can wax lyrical on the mass of data, but won’t. Having given you the headlines, here is the data so you can read it for yourselves and draw your own conclusions:

One comment

  • So if we assume people are infectious for two weeks; and we assume that only 20% are symptomatic and hence confirmed by testing, the numbers come to an average of around 1 infectious person per 3000 population across Somerset as a whole. The district-level data show no clear signs of differences between e.g. Taunton and the smaller towns. Unfortunately I don’t know how this compares with the risks associated with other illnesses, or accidents.

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